Gold and GDX Cycle update

Today’s move by Gold, but more importantly the Miners (GDX), is very bullish for Gold’s longer term 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle.  Gold is on day 20 and GDX has now made a higher high on day 17.

New highs this late in the first Trading Cycle out of the Yearly Cycle Low ensures that both Gold and the Miners will have a Right Translated cycle where both should make a higher low than their previous Trading Cycle (i.e. the YCL in Dec).

That said, I am still expecting the current Gold cycle to find a top soon but this action is bullish.  The more Time a cycle spends going up, the less Time it has for price to move down.  The USD should also be very close to finding a short term Trading Cycle low but its longer term Intermediate Cycle has very likely topped.

Previous Post where I was looking for a final pop in the Miners:

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/12/gold-trading-cycle/

Gold Trading Cycle

I have Gold on day 18 with a new high and nothing is broken just yet from a cycle trend line perspective other than the Miners (GDX) topping a bit early (so far). Still a top for gold on day 18-21 is about what one would expect after a  brutal YCL.

GDX is forming a Bull Flag consolidating its gains and I would like to see it make one more push into a higher high but it needs to do so quickly, IMO.  If the short term Trading Cycle has topped, I would very much like to see the Fib 62% level retrace hold here for both Gold and GDX.  That would seem likely if the normal timing band of 23-29 days holds for this first Trading Cycle out of the Yearly Cycle Low (YCL).

SPX Intermediate Cycle

Added: A second chart at the close showing price is now back above my Blue IC Uptrend. So this is either an early warning or an FBO.  A clear mini wedge has now formed. A close above my Red line should be bullish and a close back below my Blue IC Uptrend very likely bearish.  I grabbed a SSO position near mid-day as the rally appeared to have legs but we shall see.

The SPX has broken my Blue Intermediate Cycle (IC) uptrend line this morning which is an early warning sign that the SPX IC may have topped at 2+ months.

We need to watch this closely.  Based on Time, I would expect the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in the April timeframe.

Previous SPX Post:

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/10/spx-trading-cycle-4/

NatGas ~ new Trading Cycle?

Added: A second chart on NatGas after the close.  Time for a TC Low is very short here but my chart shows a Fractal where we likely had another short cycle.  In any case, the price action looks bullish to me and I picked up a Boil position just before the morning NG Inventory report at 7:30am PST (a bit of a gamble but it paid off as Price surged afterward).

NatGas may very well have found an early Trading Cycle Low.  My charts show that NatGas and UNG are both above the 10ema today so lets see how they close.

I have NatGas with a potential TC Low on just day 12.  The previous NatGas Trading Cycle was a long one, however, and often times long cycles are followed by short ones (and vice versa).  Here is a UNG chart showing the close up action.

TIME

Time for a Gold High and a USD Low (short term)?

Gold is making Higher High today (Day 18) and the USD a lower low (Day 23) but both are in my timing band to make a short term Turn.

I am not saying that their current trend can not continue for another day or so but Time, from a short term Trading Cycle viewpoint, should start to take hold of Price

Not a place to be adding PM positions, IMO (see my second chart in attached link)

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/08/gold-cycle-update-5/

Longer term, the USD may have found an Intermediate Cycle top.  If correct, it should make a lower high after finding its next TC Low (DCL) and roll over on or before day 8 and start its move into its next Intermediate Cycle Low.