The Chartology Forum is nearly 5 years old now.
It is a roundtable where like / open minded traders come to share their insights and knowledge and their hard work in an all for one, one for all culture.
I would like to introduce you all to two members who contribute valuable hard learned Cycles Analysis and have a unique blend of TA at their disposal. These two have become excellent traders virtually before our eyes over the years.
I give you From Costal Sunny California Sir Surf City and his colleague from The Deepest Outback in Australia Sir Norvast of Gann.
One of the best things about this board is the Community we have built where two guys from extremely different parts of the world can collaborate and refine their trading skills and then share it with members from all over the Planet. Our most recent member is from Mauritius. !
And Now :
Fully asked me to re-publish a Cycles Primer to refresh everyone with a bit of Cycle theory and rationale.
I use a number of TA tools in my work, including classic Edwards & Magee Chartology. With respect to Time, however, I rely on Cycles.
You can see the Cycle Highs and Cycle Lows on any chart of at least 6 months in duration. Walter Bressert (and WD Gann) believed that these Cycle Highs and Lows oscillated with Investor sentiment as it swings between overly Bullish to overly Bearish in terms of outlook. While Price reflects Investor Sentiment, Time is also critical to understand regarding potential “Turns” in various markets. Time, therefore, is the missing element from most standard Technical Analysis and is extremely important to track.
Time should not be relied upon alone as Cycles only give you a timing band for the next Low and are not as reliable for determining Highs. Timing Bands, however, can heighten your senses allowing you to focus TA oscillators and price action near important turn dates.
The most important Cycle I track is the Intermediate Cycle, which for most Assets lasts approximately 5-6 month in duration Low to Low. This seems to be the standard time needed for sentiment to swing from Bearish to Bullish to Bearish again. Each Intermediate Cycle can and does have several shorter term Trading Cycles within it (some refer to these as Daily Cycles).
There are also various types of Cycle Methodologies. What I have described above is Bressert’s “Count Based” methodology in terms of Trading days and weeks. This methodology is fairly reliable in establishing a timing band for the next Low. It is LESS reliable in predicting a Cycle High for either the longer term Intermediate Cycle or the shorter term Trading Cycle.
This is where my Price Channel work comes into play along with my collaboration on Gann Turn dates with my colleague Sir Norvast. Norvast’s Gann insights also have the ability to “Narrow” the timing band down to a much narrower range.
WHY are Cycles important?
Cycles can provide a trading edge by establishing timing band dates for Cycle turns (i.e. Cycle Highs and Cycle Lows).
Don’t underestimate the power of Cycles, as when Cycles turn on important dates, they often will over ride all other Technical Analysis.
Don’t believe it. How many times has Gold or other markets turned on a dime with little to no warning from conventional TA tools?
Chartology and standard TA are still our bread and butter on this forum for understanding markets. Cycles, however, should heighten our focus and attention near potential turn dates. In my work the focus is on identifying Turn dates using timing bands. Within the Timing Band, I then focus on various oscillators, including divergences, and price action near key cycle trend lines or price channels. My overall approach is to blend standard TA and Cycles methodology to create a unique Cycle Price Channel to help visualize where the market is likely headed, both short term and longer term
Knights and Ladies of the Roundtable, I hope this helps a bit. ?
“Trade the bear, ride the bull”
The greater discussion is therefore about determining whether we are in a “bear” market or a “bull” market.
While I am a proponent of the 18-22 year credit cycle for stock and the 30 year cycle for commodities when it comes to week to week or day to day trading and/or investing we simply want to buy low and sell high.
“How many times has Gold or other markets turned on a dime with little to no warning from conventional TA tools?”
Oh I remember all those agonizing times during 2013-2015 when members on this forum where ahead only to find that gold reversed it’s position overnight! It still does and will continue to do so!
We experimented with all sorts of TA indicators that might give us a hint that a change of course was imminent.
Then I/we discovered “time” and the cycle work by Sir Surf City!
Now I wait patiently for those “buy” moments to come along every 6 weeks or thereabouts when an DCL emerges or more importantly every 6 months or thereabouts when an ICL emerges and everyone else is selling.
From my humble abode here in Australia I apply some WD Gann techniques like “time adjusted echo” analysis, Fibonacci time counts, Solunar time counts, Fibonacci triangulation etc to assist Sir Surf City when, according to Bressert cycle analysis, we are getting close, or in the timing band for a significant turn.
Now I am not a surfer, in fact I live a long way from the sea in outback Australia, but Knights you have here at this forum some of the best technicians and analysts on the planet who know where to find the best waves!
Enjoy the ride!
Excellent post Sir Surf City, a clear concise and succinct explanation
One more from Surf City
Markets go up and they go down in Cycles of various length. Cycles are only one of the TA tools in Surf City’s tool box.
In addition to Bressert Cycles, Surf utilizes; the classic Edwards and Magee TA approach plus Weinstein’s Stage 4 model to best determine the stage of the longer Cycle. I have learned much on this Forum with respect to Chartology (big shout out to Rambus, Plunger, Fully and others here.) Regarding, Weinstein’s 4 Stage Model, I owe a debt of gratitude to Sir Plunger for bringing this tool to my attention. The 4 Stage Model is critical as longer cycles typically dominate shorter ones.
My charts also make use of Andrew’s Pitchforks and Price Channels which help me visualize trends and potential support and resistance that needs watching. Wrap these tools all together and you have a unique blend of Market Analysis to help identity Cycle Turns.
It’s good to know when the Surf is up… ?