Happy New Year everyone. As we start 2017, my cycle chart work shows that Gold’s last three Yearly Cycle Lows (YCLs) have taken place in either November or December of 2013, 2014 and 2015. Will history repeat with a YCL in December of 2016? Time will tell.
What the chart also shows is that after a YCL, Gold has broken my Red Yearly Cycle down trend lines and rallied for a minimum of 2+ months. Not saying that will happen again but that has been the pattern over many decades. If this pattern does not repeat then I would suspect that the YCL may have occurred in early October and the new Intermediate Cycle then rolled over after the spike up on the night of the US Election.
If the Bear market remains in force, we should expect a top before the 3 month mark, followed by new lows in 2017 into an 8 year cycle low. If the Bull market has resumed, Gold’s next Intermediate Cycle should not top out before 3+ to 4+ months.
My next charts provide a close up on the price action after these 3 YCLs. They show that after the YCL, Gold often has an intraday spike down retests to shake out the weak hands. Based on this pattern, I would expect a retest, spike down shakeout move over the next week or so.
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