The “WHAT” is Part One and the “WHY” is Part Two, below my chart:
If you are going to invest or trade in the commodity complex, you had best understand where the USD is headed…
Part One: The USD has many Cycles of various lengths. Like most assets I follow, it has a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle (IC) and a Yearly Cycle (2 ICs). Longer than that, it also has a 3 Year Cycle and a 15 Year Super Cycle which is clearly shown on my chart.
It is important to understand where you are in the longer Cycles as they will typically dominate the shorter ones. That said, my cycle work shows that the USD’s longer term 15 Year Super Cycle should be topping in 2017 based on TIME. It has either topped or perhaps it will top later this year after making one more push higher.
This is “WHAT” I am seeing in the charts with my Cycle analysis.
As to “WHY” the USD is topping, history has shown that Republican Presidents typically want a weaker USD as a matter of policy. Witness Trump’s recent comment:
“The dollar is too strong” he said before adding “Our companies can’t compete with [China] now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us.”
Part 2 ~ The “WHY” and perhaps some of the “How” as well. The attached post from JC Collins provides the best explanation I can find as to why the USD will start getting weaker. This post is a good read (check out the various links within it as well if you have time ~ fascinating stuff, IMO)
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