What is the time? Posted on February 2, 2017; 10:47 pm by NorvastFebruary 4, 2017 This is the clock I use as a “road-map” in the real estate & banking cycle (18-22 years). It was developed by an Australian, Phillip J Anderson who in his book “The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking” found that the US in particular suffers a credit shock on average every 18.6 years. I call it the “credit cycle”. Each cycle is around 18-22 years long with a mid cycle correction. The “clock” is US based. Most think that the next GFC is just around the corner. Based on this credit cycle the next “GFC” will not come along until around 2026 and it will roughly align with the down turn in commodities so for commodity based countries like Australia it will be very difficult. The real estate & banking cycle is basically a credit cycle so at this stage of the cycle banks are re-building from the 2009 GFC. Their credibility will be enhanced when they survive the mid cycle slow down in 2020 after which they will advance credit rapidly until another “pop” like the last one! The time to enter any positions in a long term portfolio is at the yearly cycle low (YCL) like last Jan/Feb. It coincided when commodities where starting to rise so was an excellent time to add some large resource players like BHP and RIO The next YCL on the SPX is just around the corner and equities remain well undervalued IMO Surf will keep you well informed on the weekly cycle low (ICL) which will coincide with the YCL in the Mar/Apr time frame.