Anatomy of a Bear Market — 7 Comments

  1. Remember in late 2014 when we moved strongly out of the YCL and then followed with a right translated ICL in early 2015.

    Our fortunes had changed we thought!

    The bottom has arrived? Right!

    Along came those two left translated IC’s that hammered us into submission all the way into the late 2015 YCL.

    Is there light at the end of that long tunnel?

  2. As I count it, Valentine’s Day is day 89 out of the YCL in December. Since gold has gone pretty much straight north since the YCL, what does this Fib ‘timing band’ suggest?
    Since you went long on Friday in the miners, should I assume that it doesn’t mean much at all this time?

    Thanks in advance

  3. Tundrascott, Thanks for your thoughts on Time based Fibs. Keep them coming as I mostly use Fibs with Price but realize that Time based Fibs are important as well.

    The best time to buy any Asset is at an Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) but you only get that chance every 5-6 months. For the PM Complex that was late December an it is gone if you missed it. The next best shot is the 1st Trading Cycle Low, which was late January and that is past as well. After that, the Half Cycle Low is your next best entry and that is what I feel we did on Friday. Second Daily Cycles out of an ICL are usually fairly bullish as they are still early in the longer Intermediate Cycle. The 3rd Trading or Daily Cycle is where you generally need to be a bit more careful as this is where the longer Intermediate will often top.

    Hope this helps.

  4. One more thing to mention. If you look at my chart from 2013 to late 2015, look at all the uptrends starting right after an ICL.

    What I clearly see on the charts is two peaks in the uptrend phase lasting about two months, followed by 3 months of downside action. The two peaks are the TC1 and TC2 Highs where the the TC2 high is also the longer Intermediate Cycle High. This is classic Bear Market cycle action where most of the Intermediate Cycles are Left Translated in terms of Time (i.e. the Cycle High is to the Left of Center in terms of the total Time of the Cycle. After the peak near 2 months, Price has more Time to make a lower low (i.e. 2 months up and 3 months down).

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