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Plungers K Wave Cycle. — 6 Comments

  1. In relation to the commodity cycle….this K Wave started around 2000. Each K wave peaks after about 25 years. This is the fifth K wave, since 1790. Every K wave since then has peaked after roughly 25 years. On that basis, this K wave should not peak until 2025 to 2026. 2025 – 1790 = 235 years…each K wave is 60 years. 25 years up on average, and 30 to 35 years down on average.
    If we pin the last low at 2000/01, this K wave will not peak until 2026. In 1920 the K wave peaked, 25 years after the mid 1890s K wave low, and the financial markets peaked 9 years later. The only way your scenario could occur, is if this K wave peaked in 2008, but it did not, as it was only 8 years from the last K wave lows. So the scenario is logical, but the timing is wrong. Very wrong.

    Way too early in the K wave cycle, to make a call like this. I will post a K wave chart later demonstrating what is really going on.

    • Have to totally disagree sorry – thought it was a very interesting and huge post.

      As per the very first sentence and opening paragraph historic info was to provide context. This context is to give us background info on where we are today within the K super cycle stage. This will ultimately set a bias and dictate a primary trading strategy to go long or short on certain instruments and go “all-in” or tiptoe with trepidation.

      Like having the family cramped in the car on a long gruelling annual road trip. After 17hrs driving and everyone’s all sweaty and flustered the kids ask the same old question again to dad from the back seat “are we there yet?” What does dad say? “We’re almost there” or “9hrs more hours to go so keep singing 100 green bottles again”?

  2. Nicely said, Jonno.

    Successful trading doesn’t require having a long term perspective, but it can surely help in deciding what markets have the best odds to play, long or short, or simply avoid.

    Of course, people have different opinions on what the big picture really is – so it’s never easy.

    And then again, revolutionary changes can change the big picture faster and more dramatically than most of us can grasp. Artificial intelligence, robots, the internet, nanotechnology, genetic engineering, cryptocurrencies – all being cases in point. Who really knows how things are going to play out in 5, 10, 20 years….?

    So thanks to both Plunger and Spock for sharing their valuable thinking. Very much appreciated.

  3. Let me say this, if you are putting your hard-earned money into this market and you are ignorant about this sort of background and market information then I believe you should just toss it away.

    I don’t see any issue with Spock’s posts, short and concise.

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