USD Intermediate Cycle
The USD is due to find an Intermediate Cycle Low but I am going to quit trying to pick a bottom as it appears headed towards a 92 handle (Blue arrows on my chart show my USD ICLs). The Fed raised rates earlier this summer and it continued to drop so I am not sure what will cause it to find a bottom but bearish sentiment is extreme here.
Regardless, my expectations are that any bounce out of an ICL will be corrective in nature and probably last two months or less in duration. The breakdown from the 2014 uptrend on my chart has turned the tide, IMO.
If I am correct, Inflation will start to creep back in and the broader CRB will start to rise as we are seeing with Dr. Copper.
Added: A second USD chart showing a close up of the Feb ICL. The small solid Red line from the early 2017 top is my Intermediate Cycle down trend. The dotted Red line is my Yearly Cycle down trend.
The AUD has just hosted a DCL and is again moving higher, despite comments from the RBA about tame inflation and maintaining low interest rates.
This is the start of the 3rd daily cycle of this IC which commenced 09 May. I expect it to be right translated and strong with commodities to follow higher, (AUD often seen as a proxy for commodities).
BHP in particular is a big producer of copper from Olympic Dam in Australia (4th largest copper deposit in world).
Norvast are you seeing any significant dates coming up for USD or Gold?