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Gold and GDX Trading Cycle update — 8 Comments

  1. Hi Surf, you said ” if GDX’s last ICL was in early May, we should expect the next one in Sept/Oct.” Is that based on where I have read on here that an Intermediate runs between 5-6 months? If the next ICL is expected Sept/Oct, are you expecting End of October? Could it also be in November? My other question is that, what sort of price are you expecting, 1200 or 1160 or 1250? Thanks.

    • Evilspec, Welcome. Yes most Intermediate Cycles last 5-6 months. The Gold and Miner cycles are usually in sync but my work shows the Miners are a full two months ahead of the metal and showing signs of topping while Gold appears ready to move higher. Very strange, but I have seen it a few times before. Most cycle guys only count gold and that certainly makes ones job easier.

      Similar “out of sync” issues were also in play during the YCL in Dec 2016 and in August 2015.

    • EvilSpec, I do see Gold (GLD) making a higher low than its July low based on a 29 day high. I posted a chart with some Fib levels on GLD today. For Gold, a 50% retrace would come in near the 50ma at 1255 and a 62% retrace would be near 1242. The 200ma is at 1232 should be strong support if I am correct about PMs moving into their next TCL/DCL.

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