This is a short term Trading Cycle update but remember that my cycle view is that Gold and the Miners (GDX, GDXJ) are at different points in their respective Intermediate Cycles (i.e. their longer cycles are not in sync). I have Gold in TC1 of a new Intermediate cycle in early July. GDX, by contrast, is in TC2, 3+ months out of its ICL in early May. I am bullish on the yellow metal here but cautious on the miners until they start to perform on my cycle charts.
Today sure feels like a day 29 Top in Trading Cycle 1 for Gold. This is based on my first chart for GLD which shows the last two trading cycles lasted 40+ days. If so, the next TCL/DCL will be bought aggressively but I plan to be patient. A Day 29 top should almost guarantee that this TC will be right translated in Time and Make a higher low. It is also possible that the Miners are on day 29 as well but my gut tells me to be cautious with them. Today’s early breakout in my last chart was followed by a nasty reversal to backtest the 10ema.
Compare the first and 4th charts on GLD and GDX. GLD made a new Yearly high today. Marginal perhaps but a new Yearly High. GDX, on the other hand, could not even hold its breakout for one day above the down trend since Jan/Feb. It is no where near making a new yearly high.
If GDX did have its ICL in May then the TC High was in early June, just one month in. If this is the top of TC2, this is a lower high and not a good sign. Therefore, if GDX’s last ICL was in early May, we should expect the next one in Sept/Oct.
Added: A Silver (SLV) chart as my last chart. Not as bullish as gold but early July sure looks like an ICL to me. The next TC Low at 62% or better would look good. Support at the 50% level would be better,