My analysis work is all about understanding both Time & Price to find cycle lows. This sure looks & smells like a surge out of a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) for Gold and PM’s here but a bit more evidence is needed before I take any additional long positions. But the price action in the Mining stocks sure looks like an ICL from a Time & Price perspective. Gold still needs to confirm by catching up over the next few days.
The next step for Gold is a close above the 10ma on the Daily followed by a close above the 10wma on the Weekly near 1287/1288. The miners have already done this — my 3rd chart on GDX chart shows that the miners do not seem to want to wait for the metals. I forecasted this Low (ICL) in last weekend’s report, but again, a bit more confirmation is needed before adding. Gold did test the 10ma on the daily today but could not close above it (see second chart).
My 4th chart is a GDX weekly & shows how tight the Bollinger Bands are now after almost 2 years of consolidation or basing sideways. There are no guarantees in markets but I have not seen them this tight in a very long time so a big move is likely coming. Time to get a seat on the Bus and Buckle up.
I have the USD moving lower today after testing & regaining the 10ma yesterday. I am expecting the USD to roll over here into a failed Trading Cycle which will lead to it’s longer Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) over the next few weeks. The miners (GDX & GDXJ) backtested their 10ma’s yesterday, found support and closed above the 50ma today (GDXJ closed above both the 50ma & 200ma). Gold came within $3 of a failed Intermediate Cycle and GLD found a double bottom at 117.40 (see attached weekly chart with a bullish reversal candle forming).
Added: USD charts below showing my expectations that it’s Intermediate Cycle has topped plus a post from December 2017, near Gold’s last 6 month Intermediate Cycle Low, covering my long term views on Gold & USD Cycle. Note in my last USD chart below how the USD, in its latest rally, has been turned back thus far but the 200 week moving average which is strong cycle resistance.
USD charts (close up Daily and a 3 Year Weekly showing Price is finding resistance at the confluence of the 100wma & 200wma.
Markets Covered & Traded include: Gold & PM Stocks, Oil & NatGas, Stocks & Bonds, and BitCoin / GBTC: