Crude Oil (WTIC): Crude W.9 made a slightly new IC High this week and nothing on the weekly chart looks like a short-term Trading Cycle Low (TCL) has formed just yet. If a mild TCL1 has formed, however, TC2 may test resistance up at the 50wma near $47.45 and the 200wma near $54.
Crude D.47 of short term Trading Cycle #1 (TC1) is my Primary as the low on D.38 is suspect as it was very mild (and short). My expectation is that Crude will move lower next week as it closed slightly below its 10ma on Friday. My next support is near the 50ma which is the Fib 38% support level.
Crude Producer ETF’s XOP and XLE are in W.14 and are far more Bearish than Crude and even the SPX over the past two weeks since finding resistance at the 200wma. While their price action is more in sync with the Broader Stock market price also closed below their 10wma this week which is often a signal that their longer-term Intermediate Cycle may have topped in just W.12 which is a Bearish sign (Very pleased that I took $3,160 in profits on XOP near the top).
XOP D.30 of Trading Cycle #2 (TC2) looks very Bearish as it closed well below it’s 50ma on Friday. Note that it is well below it’s 62% retrace level which is also Bearish and very close to a Failed Trading Cycle.
NatGas (UNG): NatGas W.12 formed a very slight undercut low from its last ICL after making an IC High in just W.5. It is still early within a new Intermediate Cycle and my plans are to short NatGas with KOLD on the next bounce.
NatGas D.8 (or perhaps D.31) had a very Nasty Drop on Thursday into a Failed Trading Cycle signaling it is now moving into its next, longer term Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). Based on NatGas, UNG is on D.6 and has already formed an undercut low.
Uranium (CCJ): CCJ W.14 has consolidated sideways over the past 9 weeks above its 200ma. Last week we closed slightly below its 200wma and also well below its 10wma. A close below it’s 10wma in conjunction with a Failed short term Trading Cycle signal’s a move into its next ICL. If correct, a top in just W.7 is Bearish and my expectations are that the 62% Fib retrace may not hold.
CCJ D.25 of Trading Cycle #2 (TC2) delivered a Failed Trading Cycle this past week signaling it has started its move into its longer-term Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). This sector should be avoided until the next ICL unless you plan to short it.