Bond Yearly Cycle update

I use TLT and USD as my proxies to track the Bond cycle. Based on Time and the recent price action, it sure looks to me like Bonds have found their Yearly Cycle Low (and very likely, the 3 year cycle low as well ~ see my last chart).

Longer term, however, my expectations are that the longer term 30 year uptrend in Bond prices since 1984/85 has topped.  To that end, I am expecting a lower high in the months ahead (i.e. the next 3 to 8 months).  Interest rates have been declining for 30+ years now and with ZIRP, they really can’t go much lower.

There is also the open question on if the market has priced in the proper risk with respect to bonds. After all bond risk is what Martin Armstrong’s Sovereign Debt Crisis is all about.

All my Bond posts:

Bond 3 Year Cycle Low?

The longer term Cycles for Bonds include: Intermediate Cycle (5-6 Months), Yearly Cycle, 3 Year Cycle and the 60 Year Bond Super Cycle that goes back to the time of Hammurabi (1800 BC). Here is a post from McClellan on the 60 Year Cycle on Bonds: Bonds are in … Continue reading →