Here are a few charts from today and I will likely add to them later this evening.
Let me just say that the initial moves out of Fed day are often head fakes, only to be reversed within a few days. Not always, but history shows us that is often the case so we need to see what the next couple of days bring. My expectations, based on the moves today, are that the USD will bounce a bit and Gold and PM’s will consolidate and form Bull Flags. For this bounce to have legs, however, we should not take out the starting price prints where the Impulse move started after the FMOC announcement. That is why I moved up my stop level on AGQ.
Stocks (SPX): SPX is on day 4 of a new Trading Cycle but has entered its timing band to start seeking out its next Intermediate Cycle Low. My first chart shows that the small green channel that I showed you yesterday, provided resistance today so we watch to see if the chop continues or if it breaks out and in what direction.
My second chart shows the weekly Intermediate Cycle action. The SPX has been averaging an ICL every 5 months since August 2015, but we often see Intermediate Cycles get longer during bullish phases. My expectations are that the next ICL will be in the late April to early May timeframe.
WTIC Crude Oil: Formed a “swing low” today and very likely on day one of a new Trading Cycle. The longer Intermediate Cycle Low is still an open question for now. Added a second chart showing the longer weekly or Intermediate Cycle action.
USD: Never tested or breached my red TC downtrend so we are now on day 28 and overdue for a short term TC Low based on Time. Todays low found support near the 61.8% Fib level but the MACD show it is just starting to roll over. We need to watch his one closely here over the next several days.
Gold: I have Gold on day 3 of Trading Cycle 3. The impulse move by Gold Silver and the Miners after the FMOC announcement on rates was the first sign of life in several weeks. While this could be recognition day for Trading Cycle #3 in Gold and PM’s, we need to see some follow through in the days ahead. A top before day 11 would be bearish, IMO and this is about were we often see a half cycle low so it gets tricky from here on out.
Gold’s 3rd Trading Cycle is critical here, especially after the big drop into the TC2 Low. Making a higher high than the Feb TC2 High will be a tall order. There is still a very strong possibility that Gold’s longer Intermediate Cycle topped in February. If so, TC3 will likely top out on or before day 11 and perhaps as short as days 4-9. Just look at the charts from last Fall after Gold topped in early July and the Miners in mid-August. Every Trading Cycle after that had an impulsive start but faded relatively quickly.
I don’t want to seem overly bearish here but we need to be careful and I will not likely be adding new longs here as I think it is too risky at this point. The AGQ positions were added too early near the 38% fib level which would have been a bullish retrace had the low held there. It did not hold and I will be looking for an exit, hopefully, at a profit.
The chart below on Gold is just wrong and I do not know what is going on at Stockcharts as Gold clearly closed near the HOD with a Bull Hammer pattern above the 10ema and the 50ma. Same bad print on Silver so I am at a loss on how to use this tool going forward.
Copper: Day 4 of a new Trading Cycle but this low seems very mild for a IC Low which should also be the Yearly Cycle Low.
Added: Bond update. One would think that Bonds might do well if stocks are headed into their next Intermediate Cycle low. They bounced hard today along with the metals but they also just had a failed Trading Cycle that bounced just above the YCL from late Dec 2016.