Note that this section’s analysis uses a combination of 30wema or 50wma on the Weekly and the 150ema or 200ma on the Daily depending on which appears to be more relevent.
Crude Summary: With a Failed TC, Crude may have found an ICL but this week’s price action on the Daily chart signals that may not yet be the case. On the Weekly chart, the Bollinger Bands are extremely tight signaling a big move is likely coming. That said, often times the initial move can be a head fake. If correct, we could see a spike lower into an ICL followed by a strong reversal (see weekly chart).
Crude Oil (WTIC): Crude W.24 and price closed 11 cents above the 10wma but nothing on the weekly chart looks like an ICL to me as Crude almost always retraces at least a Fib 38% into an ICL. Cycles, however, do have sideways consolidation ICLs but they are rare. Given the time we have chopped sideways any move lower into an ICL can see a sharp reversal.
Crude D.23 of a new Trading Cycle that is bouncing out of a Failed TC. So far we have a top on D.8 where price found resistance at the 50ma and a retest that made a lower high that was also rejected by the 50ma. Until I see a close back above the 50ma that makes a higher TC High I am looking lower as a high on just D.8 is Bearish in within a shorter term Trading Cycle.
XOP & XLE Update: W.29 for XOP and XLE as all we have is a weekly swing low in place. More evidence is needed to confirm an ICL and the next is a close back above the 10wma.
XOP and XLE short term counts are not crystal clear and so I may exit this trade as soon as tomorrow depending on the action in the broader stock market. We are either on D.5 of a new TC or perhaps D.20 within a Failed TC4. Friday price moved lower with crude rather than stocks and I stepped aside as Crude may be headed lower based on Friday’s rejection at the 50ma.
NatGas: Note that I am using UNG for now as the NatGas chart on Stockcharts does not look correct perhaps due to a contract month rollover.
UNG W.15 seeking out its next ICL as we only have a very slight Weekly swing low and price was rejected at the 10wma. My short term count is also not crystal clear yet.
My Primary short term count has UNG headed lower (see details in my Daily chart).
Uranium (CCJ): CCJ W.29 with a slight undercut low so it is still seeking out its next ICL. Note that price is trying to establish support at the Fib 38% retrace near the 50wma.
CCJ D.23 of a Failed Trading Cycle #4 (TC4) still seeking out its next TCL which could also be an ICL. Note that there are no divergences yet on either the RSI or the MACD.
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