Big vote today in Washington DC on Trump’s Obamacare repeal/replace legislation so it will be interesting to see how all markets react to the news, whatever it is.
Stocks are moving higher into the vote. Gold, Silver and the Miners opened stronger but have given back those gains fairly quickly.
Welcome to the 3rd Trading Cycle (TC) in Gold where the action gets very choppy. I have Gold on day 9 and this is where it gets tricky. Days 9-12 are often where we see a Half Cycle Low in Gold but in 3rd TC’s, I have also told you we have often seen a top between days 5-11 with many topping on or before day 9 over the past 5 years.
Added: Chart on JDST which shows it is wedging and was turned back at resistance this morning, so far.
Monday will be day 6 of Gold’s third Trading Cycle (TC) out of the December 2016 Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). Gold’s longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle usually has four shorter Trading Cycles within it (sometimes 3 or 5 but usually 4 shorter Trading Cycles). Next week’s price action will be critical in determining if we will see a higher high in this Intermediate Cycle (IC) or just a secondary high that will set the IC downtrend line into the next IC Low which I am expecting in the May/June timeframe. Based on my cycle work, I do believe the Gold Bull has resumed, however, the transitions from Bear to Bull markets are typically epic battles that take time to play out.
Wth that as background, third Trading Cycles have been pivotal for Gold over the past 5 years as the only bullish 3rd short term Trading Cycle I can find on the charts over this period was during the first 6 months of 2016 out of the December 2015 YCL. That 3rd TC topped on day 17. Other than that one, my chart work shows that every other 3rd Trading Cycle since the 2011 ATH topped on or before day 11 (many topped on or before day 9). My intent here is not be be overly bearish going into next week but rather to provide you with the best guidance I can based on recent cycle history. This post shows the potential transition from Bear to Bull in the Gold market but you can see that it is still a work in process as we enter next week.
This weekend, I will focus on Weekly charts for a longer term perspective. From a daily chart outlook, I don’t have much to add to this post from late last week.
Again, Gold is on day 6 on Monday, and the following Monday would be day 11. I will be watching closely for topping action especially since the USD is deep in its timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle Low. That said, the USD’s TC’s have been running longer than the normal timing band lately so we could see some more downside action in the days ahead.
My last chart is a weekly on the USD since last May’s Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). Note that Price is nearing the 30weam where the dollar has found support at recent lows. Remember that a rising 30ema on the weekly that supports price at major lows is bullish (Classic Weinstein Stage 2 Bull market price action).
Consumer prices in the US increased 2.7% percent year-on-year in Feb 2017, following a 2.5% rise in Jan. It was the highest inflation rate since Mar 2012 boosted by gasoline prices. Lets look at the chart of inflation firstly over 5 years then 10 years. Both charts resemble the gold … Continue reading →
This goes without saying but we will say it. A member who choses to cancel their subscription after 1 month free , who then signs up again , will not get another month free. His account will be charged $39.99 . … Continue reading →
Here are a few charts from today and I will likely add to them later this evening. Let me just say that the initial moves out of Fed day are often head fakes, only to be reversed within a few days. Not always, but history shows us that is often … Continue reading →
While we wait for the FED to make a decision, the results of the Dutch election, the CPI results, plus wonder when Congress may realise that the debt ceiling is about to expire, we can at least entertain ourselves with one of the greatest rock guitar songs of all time … Continue reading →