I am seeing subtle signs this morning that we are on day 2 of Trading Cycle 4 in Gold and the Miners. Silver has made a lower low and is likely on a different count with I will expand on over the weekend.
Remember that Gold’s longer 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle normally has 4 shorter term Trading Cycles within it. Sometimes 3 and sometimes 5 but the norm is 4 and that is my expectation right now. If I am correct, TC4 will bounce a bit here but TC4’s are normally weak and often times just back test the 10ema from below and sometimes don’t even close above it.
Stocks (SPX) have also not put in anything close to a Intermediate Cycle Low just yet and My expectations are that the IC Low will now be extended out to either May or June. Here are a couple of charts on the SPX and RUT.
I have Gold on day 32 and deep in its timing band to find Trading Cycle Low (TC3 Low?). Gold has broken my Green TC uptrend line but not my Blue IC uptrend just yet. It has also not had a failed Trading Cycle yet (GDX has one Failed TC and GDXJ has two failed TC so far).
Silver and the Miners have broken both my Green and Blue cycle uptrend lines so it would seem we are waiting on Gold. Based on Time, it is likely we will see this happen during TC4 after we see a TC4 bounce.
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