My first chart is a short term daily where I have drawn two Blue Trading Cycle (TC) uptrend lines. As the high, thus far, is still on day 9, the dotted blue line is still valid. As long as the day 9 top holds, this will still likely be a Left Translated cycle but we also want to see a Lower TC Low below the early Feb TC Low. A failed cycle here should then move price rapidly lower and should break the longer Intermediate Cycle uptrend in my second, longer term chart. This is my cycle analysis based on Time, Cycle Norms and the Price Action we are seeing here.
Back to the first chart. The dip down on day 11 below the 10ema has also formed a pivot which is often what we see at a Half Cycle Low. This is why I have drawn a second Blue line but note that it was also breached today but the dollar bounced and closed back above the line and the 10ema. The USD is putting up a stiff fight against moving lower but only a close above the 50ma and the IC Downtrend in my second chart would cause me to alter my cycle views here.
Based on Time, Day 36, this trading Cycle should be close to topping but the Price action just keeps moving higher.
My first chart of the SPX shows the current Price channel has now gone parabolic. RSI 5 level on the chart is going nuts near 90. My second chart shows a longer parabola out of the Brexit IC Low. RSI 14 is near 80, the highest it has been in years.
My last chart is of the DOW and show a longer term price channel out of the early 2016 IC Low.
Added: A very interesting 4th chart of UVXY, the “Widow Maker.” I call it the Widow Maker as it is a 3x short of the Stock Market which has been a fools errand as of late. Look at the Volume patterns on this chart over the past two weeks and the apparent bottom 6 days ago. Today it broke my downtrend line and closed above the 10ema. Hmmmm…
While Silver and the Miners can give us clues on where price is headed from time to time, they can also deliver their fare share of head fakes. I want to make it clear that Gold is the key driver for Cycles in the PM sector, even though Silver and … Continue reading →
Will check in later this afternoon. Enjoy the long weekend. … Continue reading →
Nothing has changed from my last post on this pair. I mentioned we should expect some backtesting and that is what I am seeing on the charts. This should be expected, IMO as both are at a key inflection point in their longer Intermediate Cycles and the battle is on. … Continue reading →
Time will tell but Copper closed below the 10ema today and both my daily and weekly charts below show potential topping action. On the Daily, Copper has topped thus far, on day 6 of Trading or Daily Cycle #2. My chart shows Price wedging and Copper needs to find support … Continue reading →