SPX Intermediate Cycle

Added: A second chart at the close showing price is now back above my Blue IC Uptrend. So this is either an early warning or an FBO.  A clear mini wedge has now formed. A close above my Red line should be bullish and a close back below my Blue IC Uptrend very likely bearish.  I grabbed a SSO position near mid-day as the rally appeared to have legs but we shall see.

The SPX has broken my Blue Intermediate Cycle (IC) uptrend line this morning which is an early warning sign that the SPX IC may have topped at 2+ months.

We need to watch this closely.  Based on Time, I would expect the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in the April timeframe.

Previous SPX Post:


SPX Trading Cycle

I have the SPX on day 6 of a new Trading Cycle.  The last TC Low or DCL allows me to now draw my longer Blue 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Uptrend line.  My fist chart shows the SPX wedging to a decision point and the tightness of the Bollinger Bands is signaling a big move is very likely coming.

My second chart shows several blue vertical lines that pinpoint the periods over the past 2 years were we also saw tightness in the B-Bands.  Not saying we will see another big drop here but the SPX either needs to break above my red resistance because a close below my Blue IC Uptrend would likely signal the longer Intermediate Cycle has topped.