SPX Trading Cycle

I have the SPX on day 6 of a new Trading Cycle.  The last TC Low or DCL allows me to now draw my longer Blue 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Uptrend line.  My fist chart shows the SPX wedging to a decision point and the tightness of the Bollinger Bands is signaling a big move is very likely coming.

My second chart shows several blue vertical lines that pinpoint the periods over the past 2 years were we also saw tightness in the B-Bands.  Not saying we will see another big drop here but the SPX either needs to break above my red resistance because a close below my Blue IC Uptrend would likely signal the longer Intermediate Cycle has topped.

Dr. Copper

Has Copper found a Bear Market Low and are we seeing another signal that Inflation is winning the battle over Deflation?  On this longer front, Time will Tell but my second chart gives you my perspective.

In the short term, my first chart work shows that Copper is bouncing out of a shot term Trading Cycle low and perhaps a longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle as well.

Freeport McMoran (FCX) was up 6% today and Rio Tinto (RIO) almost 7%.   RIO is also paying a 4% dividend even at its current price point which makes it a nice buy and hold for an IRA account.

WTIC Oil Trading Cycle

Yesterday Crude signaled its move into its next short term Trading Cycle Low when it finally broke below my Green TC Uptrend line.  Crude has been a beast to trade lately and at day 37 it is already in the middle of its timing band to find a TC Low (33-50 days on average).  A day 33 high should result in a Right Translated short term Trading Cycle.

My second chart shows the one year price action showing overhead resistance and underlying support.


Does it have a Cycle?  Talk about catching a falling knife…

Wheat (WEAT) has been in just a brutal 9 year Bear Market as my first long term weekly chart clearly shows.

So why am I posting on it?  WEAT has broken out of a 6 month downtrend within the context of the 9 year Bear Market.  I picked up a small starter position last week based on my second chart but I plan to keep a tight stop on it.


USD Cycle Update

My close up chart work shows the USD is on day 19, which is the early part of my timing band to find short term Trading Cycle Low. Friday’s price action shows the USD backtesting its breakdown below the 10ema and my Blue Cycle uptrend line.  A close above the 10ema will likely signal the TC Low is in.

That said, the USD is also in my timing band to find an Intermediate Cycle Peak.  If I am correct on the USD’s longer IC, then we should expect Price to top out on or before day 8 of the next Trading Cycle and then make a lower TC low which would also signal that he longer Intermediate Cycle has topped.

Previous USD Posts: